What threatens Belarus if the Russian gas pipeline to the EU shuts off

–12.11.2021

Threats by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to block the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline in case of borders closure between Belarus and Poland and Lithuania, EU members, have already caused a response in the EU. ‘In matters of gas supplies, we must make the most of our relations with supplier countries – the African countries, Norway, Russia – and we will not allow Lukashenko to intimidate us with his threats,’ said Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy on November 11.

According to Marat Samarsky, ART DE LEX’s Advocate, it will be difficult for Belarus to push Gazprom Transgaz Belarus, which is 100% owned by Gazprom, to stop the transit. ‘This may be done through some equivalent of emergency situation regime where Belarus would freeze any its obligations to transit products in the interests of national security and as a response to the ‘unfriendly’ actions of other states,’ said the advocate. However, such step would cause protest on Moscow side, the expert added.