The head of international arbitration of the ART DE LEX company Artur Zurabyan comments on sanctions against Russia
If Ukraine slaps sanctions on transit of Russian gas and oil through Ukraine than the the alternative gas and oil pipelines will be used on full blast.
The following opinion is expressed by experts, officials and deputies. Even though Russia may suffer as it loses money from European customers, the main victim of the current standoff remains Europe itself. The European countries will lack 15% of its usual supply and what is more important- it is impossible to substitute Russian supply.
Ivan Grachev, the head of Energy Committee of State Duma, conciders that Ukraine is simply blackmailing Europe with sanctions against Russia. "The first IMF transfer is spent on making war and the second is expected to be transferred therefore Ukraine sees the graviest economic meltdown. There are a lot of reasons for Ukranian officials to run mad. 80 billion cubic meters which pass through Ukraine are impossible to substitute. On the other hand it is impossible to imagine that Europe will leave its citizens with no gas and oil. In case of sanctions Russia may spur transit of oil and gas through North Stream, Belarus territory or Opal gas stream. Because of the sanctions the negotiations on South Stream may intensify as well",- says Ivan Grachev.
Alexander Krestyanov, the deputy of the permanent resident of Russia in the EU, who is responsible for economic and sectoral partnership with the EU, has noted that sanctions in form of gas and oil supply ban threaten European energy security: "for Russia the loss of income from gas and oil supply is not so terrible as for Europe that risks to stay with no energy supplies and it's citizens left with no gas and oil supply".
The head of international arbitration of the Art De Lex Law firm, Artur Zurabyan notices that the ban on transit through Ukraine will be a direct violation of agreement on international level.
"If the Ukraine government implements sanctions than Russian companies would witness force- major which will violate agreements between customers and sellers. With the following violations of agreements Russia and Russian companies will have legal basis to levy penalties against Ukraine and dement to lift prohibitions. First of all, Russia violates the agreement on gas and oil transit with companies that use Ukranian pipelines an pay for it in advance.
It is apparent that for Ukraine the ban on transit is a politically motivated action with all benefits the following gives to Ukraine. As for Europe the case provides the cause for reflexion about alternative gas and oil routes and the attitude of Europe to the following matter. In case if transfer is discontinued for one or two months Russia is likely to demand indemnity of loses through court action. In this case Europe is likely to supportRussia as it doesn't want to stay with no energy supply before the winter time.
Still the litigation may not happen if the threats of sanctions would remain as threats.
As for the alternative to withdraw the South Stream from the Regulations of the European Parliament on conditions of access to the natural gas transmission networks and repealing Regulations than there are no restrictions for that with the willingness of the European Commision", - says Mr. Zurabyan.
Alexey Grivach, the deputy of GM of the Fund of National security of gas projects, in particular, evaluates the situation as a stalemate: " there are no solutions in such a case. If Ukraine stops gas an oil transit than Europe won't receives approximately 50% of overall Russian supply, which is 15% of national supply in each European country. The following supply is impossible to carry on without Russia. As a result Ukraine violates all obligations. With this Russia (Gazprom) may disengage itself from all obligations referring to force- major. Nevertheless Russia would lose about 30 billion US dollar with the loss of European market", -says Mr.Grivach.
